Foreign media reported on Saturday (February 28) that a US official confirmed the US military had carried out a strike against Iran. Simultaneously, Israel launched a daytime attack on Tehran, the Iranian capital, with smoke rising over the city center and eyewitnesses reporting hearing explosions. The specific target of the attack was not yet clear. An Israeli government official stated that Israel was preparing for a four-day intensive and powerful coordinated strike as the first phase.

Amidst all the geopolitical, trade policy, and artificial intelligence concerns, the past week appeared to have been less eventful than expected. However, an uneasy atmosphere still pervaded markets, with bond yields falling, major stock indices fluctuating, and implied oil price volatility at high levels.

US President Trump announced that he would replace the now-illegal IEEPA tariffs with a universal 15% Section 122 tariff for 150 days—but currently only the lower 10% rate is in effect.

US Trade Representative Jamison Greer outlined the road ahead, noting that the tariff rate could rise to 15% or higher for "some countries" (but perhaps not all?). Greer noted that the government hopes to begin these investigations as soon as possible, but has not yet specified which economies will be targeted first.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

Last week, US wholesale inflation data for January unexpectedly exceeded expectations. Coupled with multiple pressures such as cooling AI trading and rising concerns about private equity lending, US stocks fell across the board on Friday (February 27), casting a shadow over the end of February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 521.28 points, or 1.06%, at 48,977.92; the S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92% to 22,668.21.

Last week, international gold prices strongly broke through and stood above the $5,200/ounce mark. Although US PPI data was higher than expected, it did not deter gold bulls. The PPI release initially led to a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, but the dollar index subsequently turned downwards, falling back into negative territory during the day. For gold bulls to regain control, prices need to gain "valid confirmation" above $5,200. A breakout this week and a sustained close above $5,200 on the weekly chart would undoubtedly be the most ideal confirmation.

Last week, with continued high global demand for physical precious metals, silver prices saw a breakthrough rally, reaching the crucial $90 per ounce level. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group abruptly suspended electronic trading in metals and natural gas on Wednesday, triggering turmoil in international financial markets.

Last week, the dollar weakened due to geopolitical uncertainty and developments in US trade policy. The Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration's tariffs illegal, prompting him to respond with a new round of tariffs. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data failed to boost the dollar. The dollar index traded around 97.60, down about 0.11% for the week, ending the week slightly lower as traders remained cautious amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

The euro/dollar pair traded around 1.1810, recovering some ground before the weekend close, as Germany's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for February came in lower than expected, rising 2% year-on-year (expected 2.1%) and 0.4% month-on-month (expected 0.5%). The dollar/yen pair traded around 156.00, in neutral territory, having almost recovered all of its intraday losses. Tokyo's CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year in February, falling below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since 2024, according to data excluding fresh food.

The pound/dollar pair traded around 1.3470, recovering some ground after nearly hitting a one-month low earlier in the month. On the other hand, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there is still room for interest rate cuts given that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target. The Australian dollar/US dollar pair traded around 0.7120, reversing previous losses and trending upward. Market focus now shifts to the Australian TD-MI inflation indicator due on Monday.

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $67.75 a barrel, near a seven-month high, as the US and Iran agreed to extend nuclear negotiations into next week, maintaining a high level of uncertainty. Investors are also focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday to determine oil supply policy, with the market watching for signs of production changes against the backdrop of ongoing US military deployments. Oil prices rose about 2.5% throughout February, extending a 13.6% gain in January.

Affected by the stock market pullback triggered by Nvidia's earnings report, traders continued to reduce exposure as they moved in tandem with the equity market, resulting in continued narrow-range trading for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Most major tokens recorded declines in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, at $67,765, rose slightly by 0.42%, but still managed to maintain a modest 0.6% gain for the week.

Last week, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4% on Friday, its lowest level in four months, ending February down about 25 basis points, marking its strongest monthly performance in the past year. Safe-haven demand persists amid President Trump's trade policies, ongoing Middle East tensions, and growing concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Yields are further supported by a large-scale rotation from AI-heavy stocks as investors seek portfolio diversification.

Market Outlook This Week:

This week (March 2-6), the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) officially opens, lasting seven days. The focus will be on the full text of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government's work goals for 2026. A flurry of important data and corporate earnings reports will be released, from CFTC positioning and the OPEC+ meeting to European and American PMIs and Eurozone inflation; from Fed speeches and ECB pronouncements to the Two Sessions in China, Apple's product launch, and Berkshire Hathaway's earnings report—each event could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to plan ahead to address potential risks and opportunities.

On Tuesday, the UK will announce its budget results, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will discuss the role of central banks in the new financial ecosystem at the FIN/SUM Fintech Summit in Tokyo.

On Wednesday (March 4th), a press conference for the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) was held in Beijing to introduce the details of the meeting. This meeting, the most important one regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026), will last for seven days.

On Friday (March 6th), the US will release its key non-farm payroll data for the week, including the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth. Last month's non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, demonstrating the resilience of the labor market, but also drawing market skepticism. Therefore, this week's non-farm payroll data is particularly crucial.

Regarding the risks this week:

Risk Warning:

In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, OPEC+ oil production policies and changes in crude oil inventories may trigger oil price fluctuations;

Second, speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan that signal a policy shift may quickly correct market expectations, causing fluctuations in corresponding currencies and precious metals;

Third, policy direction set by the Two Sessions in China and news from Apple's product launch may affect related sectors and global risk sentiment.

This Week's Conclusion:

Earlier last Saturday, US President Trump announced that the US had begun "major military operations" in Iran, following Israel's preemptive missile strike on Tehran.

A strong wave of risk aversion is expected to hit global markets as the new week begins on Monday. Funds are flowing heavily into safe-haven assets, with gold poised for a strong boost, while oil prices are also expected to surge. Safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc are expected to be the most sought-after assets, while global stock markets may face heavy selling pressure. An "instinctive safe-haven rally" in oil prices, the US dollar, US Treasuries, and gold is anticipated, but without further significant escalation, a systemic market misalignment is unlikely. Conversely, if the escalation expands or continues, and the conflict leads to substantial and sustained disruptions to oil production and transportation around the Strait of Hormuz, negative sentiment is more likely to evolve into a long-term trend, significantly altering asset pricing.

What does the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling mean?

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump lacked the authority to impose tariffs on imports from other countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 and must refund $175 billion in tariffs already collected to U.S. importers. The Supreme Court did not specify the method of refund. Following the ruling, Trump immediately announced a new 15% provisional tariff on goods from all countries worldwide, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. However, because this act only grants the Trump administration 150 days of enforcement power, after which congressional intervention is required, the sustainability of the tariffs is highly uncertain.

The ruling may reflect a general distrust of Trump's policies among the American elite.

The ruling is believed to have three main implications. First, the Supreme Court's decision should not surprise the market, because a ruling in favor of Trump would have set a dangerous precedent, undermining the balance of the U.S. separation of powers—legislative (Congress), executive (President), and judicial (Supreme Court). Therefore, a Trump defeat was expected. A more compelling question is why the court chose to deliver its ruling at this juncture, rather than delaying the matter further. This may be related to two recent reports and the release of a particular figure. On the 12th of this month, a research report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that 90% of Trump's tariffs were actually borne by American consumers and businesses, not foreign companies. Furthermore, a forecast report released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the 11th of this month projected that the US deficit in fiscal year 2026 would be approximately 5.8% of GDP; if this forecast comes true, it would be comparable to the situation in 2025. In other words, the tax revenue increased by the Trump administration through tariffs is insufficient to improve the fiscal deficit; at best, it can only prevent further deterioration. Even more embarrassingly, China, America's most important competitor, is projected to have a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025, a record high. Under these circumstances, Trump's tariff policy will neither bring substantial improvement to the national treasury nor prevent domestic discontent and resistance from allies. Therefore, from another perspective, the US Supreme Court's ruling can be seen as a reflection of the overall American elite re-evaluating Trump's policies. The US government may need to issue more debt to recoup taxes.

The Supreme Court's order requiring the Trump administration to refund the $175 billion in tariffs already collected to US importers will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the national treasury. Although Treasury Secretary Bessant pointed out that the refund could take months or even years, since the Supreme Court has ruled, the taxes must be returned. Given the US government's long-term fiscal deficit, it seems the only way to repay this amount is through debt issuance. With the US government's fiscal situation becoming increasingly dire, this could further weaken the credibility of US Treasury bonds and the dollar, prompting more funds to flow into gold as a safe haven.

Conclusion:

While Trump has invoked another bill to extend his tariff policy, this will only bring greater policy uncertainty and chaos to the market, and may cause even greater damage to the economy. For US entrepreneurs, how can they dare to invest real money in setting up new production lines when it is unclear whether future goods will receive tariff protection? For US consumers, knowing that this tariff policy may only last for 150 days, any major purchasing decisions may be postponed, thus harming the vitality of the consumer market. Let's continue to observe how things unfold.

The Era of Dollar Reversal Begins: From "America First" to "Mediocrity"?

Since 2025, the dollar has experienced significant depreciation, reflecting the fading of the "American exceptionalism" narrative. With slowing economic growth expectations and weakening capital inflows, the valuation bubble that previously relied excessively on the "America outperforms" premium has begun to burst. The long-term problems facing the dollar have been fully exposed.

Currently, the dollar faces multiple structural pressures: the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, while the fiscal deficit has not narrowed, resulting in an awkward imbalance in the policy mix; trade policy has been erratic, with tariffs failing to support the dollar and instead exacerbating uncertainty; moderate inflation expectations have led to a narrowing of the interest rate advantage, reducing the reliability of traditional valuation anchors. Although there has not yet been a systemic "de-dollarization," reserve managers are accelerating the accumulation of alternative assets such as gold, driving gradual diversification.

The Fading of American Exceptionalism and the Vulnerability of the Dollar at High Levels

In 2025, the dollar experienced significant depreciation, a decline that was not a sudden event but rather a concentrated release of long-accumulated pressure. The fading of American economic "exceptionalism" had been lurking in the market for some time. Once the narrative began to normalize, various cracks became apparent: economic growth expectations moderated, capital inflows slowed, and the valuation bubble that had previously relied excessively on "America outperforming" burst.

By 2025, dollar holdings will be highly concentrated and heavily reliant on this growth premium. When the premium begins to recede, the dollar's sensitivity to market sentiment and positioning changes will increase dramatically, far exceeding recent levels.

Multiple Challenges in the US Policy Environment

Meanwhile, the policy environment poses a more intractable challenge to the dollar. Market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, coupled with the potential for greater political influence on its leadership, introduce a small but significant risk premium to the Fed's credibility.

At this juncture, fiscal policy remains unanchored, the deficit shows no signs of narrowing, and spending is expected to rise further during the election cycle. The steepening yield curve has failed to provide substantial support for the dollar. Even a brief rebound in nominal yields, the lack of a credible fiscal path, weakens the traditional support of interest rate differentials for the dollar.

The Complex Game Between Trade Policy and Inflation Expectations

Trade policy, too, failed to deliver a clear signal. Typically, high tariffs reinforce the inflation narrative and support the dollar, but the market has been cautious about recent announcements. Policy volatility, high unpredictability, and the lengthy transmission time of effects have resulted in an unusually mild reaction in the foreign exchange market. The tariff rulings, instead of boosting the dollar, exacerbated the overall uncertainty.

All of this has contributed to a moderate inflation expectation. Long-term breakeven inflation rates suggest that the market is comfortable with inflationary pressures being under control (or perhaps even overly optimistic). This is crucial for the dollar: when inflation is perceived as manageable, interest rate differentials narrow, weakening one of the dollar's key supports. A shift in expectations—whether due to tariffs or other factors—could trigger repricing. A more severe scenario is that inflation strengthens again while the Fed continues its easing policies; this combination would weigh heavily on real yields and, at a time when confidence is already fragile, raise questions about policy direction and the Fed's independence.

The Failure of Valuation Anchors and Pressure for Gradual Diversification

In this context, the declining reliability of traditional valuation anchors is not surprising. Multiple forces, including policy, capital flows, and politics, are pulling in opposite directions. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates and interest rate spreads narrow, a weaker dollar is a natural consequence unless other central banks adopt more aggressive or sustained easing policies.

While a structural "de-dollarization" cycle has not yet emerged, multiple driving factors may marginally support gradual diversification. Reserve managers remain subject to clear constraints, and the dollar market remains central to the global system, but the accelerated accumulation of alternative assets such as gold aligns with this broader theme.

The Nature of the Dollar Adjustment

Overall, this round of dollar adjustment possesses both political and structural characteristics. Political factors have accelerated the process, but the foundations were already laid: the normalization of American exceptionalism, the awkward imbalance in the policy mix, and the evolution of inflation and reserve management dynamics. How long these forces persist may determine the dollar's trajectory over the next decade.

Conclusion:

Currently, it does not constitute a dramatic turning point, nor is it a rapid rebound after a brief interruption. A more reasonable path is a slow, uneven adjustment, with the market gradually clarifying the reasonable premium level that US assets should enjoy. In early 2026, the dollar index will continue to be under pressure amid global uncertainty and the interplay of the Fed's path, but in the long run, its core status as a reserve currency remains resilient, and the depreciation is more of a cyclical rather than a permanent shift.

A Strong Dollar and Profit-Taking: Gold Prices Engulfed at High Levels?

After reaching a multi-week high of $5,250 last week, some holders locked in their gains, leading to increasing selling pressure. This typical profit-taking phenomenon is common after a rapid price increase, directly weakening gold's short-term upward momentum. At the same time, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials provided solid support for the dollar, further exacerbating gold's relative weakness. As a dollar-denominated commodity, gold prices naturally have a negative correlation with the dollar index; when the dollar strengthens, gold often faces downward pressure.

However, the downside for gold is not unlimited. Continued uncertainty in US trade policy and the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East are important factors limiting gold's decline. Although the US Supreme Court rejected some of President Trump's previous tariff measures, Trump subsequently announced an increase in temporary tariffs on global imports from 10% to the legally allowed maximum of 15%, a statement that again sparked confusion and concern in the market regarding the US trade stance. Furthermore, the US and Iran will hold a new round of talks in Geneva, with the Iranian Foreign Minister stating that there is still a significant possibility of resolving the issue through diplomatic channels. However, if there are any signs of deterioration in US-Iran relations, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to quickly attract capital, thus providing strong support for a short-term rebound.

Gold Revaluation May Not Solve the US Debt Crisis, But It Can Reshape Fiscal Perspectives

Although the pace of global central bank gold purchases has slowed in recent months, the market maintains optimistic expectations, believing that official sector demand will gradually recover in the spring. The bank's latest precious metals report examines gold's unique position in central bank balance sheets from a historical perspective, emphasizing that gold is fundamentally different from government debt or other conventional reserve assets, existing instead as a strategic anchor.

Gold will continue to occupy a core position in the global foreign exchange reserve system, especially given the milestone that total official gold reserves have exceeded US Treasury holdings for the first time in recent years (the first time since 1996). Gold is not a tool for short-term fiscal financing, but rather serves as an "anchor of trust"—possessing characteristics such as high liquidity, no burden, and no counterparty risk, primarily serving to maintain monetary credibility, enhance confidence, and improve systemic resilience. It exists independently of daily political decision-making, serving as a last resort reserve in extreme scenarios rather than a stopgap measure to address structural fiscal imbalances. Therefore, gold cannot be considered a true debt reduction tool; its core value lies in its immunity to short-term policy interference and its ability to provide stable support during crises.

In a macroeconomic environment of rapidly expanding global sovereign debt and escalating geopolitical risks, gold's appeal as an "anchor of trust" is increasingly prominent. Societe Generale believes that as cyclical tests of confidence in fiat currencies intensify, central banks are unlikely to abandon this unique asset.

Specifically regarding the United States, the market has deeply discussed the valuation controversy surrounding gold reserves. At current market prices, the ratio of US debt to gold holdings is approximately 29:1, not significantly abnormal compared to countries like Japan and the UK. However, because the US still uses the fixed fiat gold price of $42.22 per ounce, established since 1973, for accounting purposes, every $1 of gold corresponds to approximately $3484.5 of debt, creating a highly prominent "debt-gold price imbalance" globally.

This review examines the historical precedent set by President Roosevelt during the Great Depression, when he revalued gold from $20.67 to $35. This move instantly expanded the Treasury's gold-backed balance sheet and led to a real depreciation of the dollar by approximately 41%, effectively alleviating monetary tightening and deflationary pressures. Currently, US federal debt has surpassed the $38 trillion mark, while the accounting gold price remains at $42.22 per ounce. Assuming a future revaluation of gold to approximately $5,000 per ounce, this could generate a valuation gain of approximately $2.1 trillion, equivalent to 5%-6% of the current total debt. However, such a revaluation only improves the fiscal appearance, buys time, and reshapes gold's role in the monetary system; it cannot fundamentally solve the long-term US fiscal deficit and debt sustainability problems. Instead, it might be interpreted by the market as a signal of systemic pressure.

Geopolitical Conflict Escalation Scenario; Gold May Surge to $5,800

The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have become a significant driving force in the recent gold market. The latest report points out that if the US-Iran standoff escalates further, a surge in safe-haven demand could push gold prices up by around 15% in the short term, potentially reaching $5,500-$5,800 per ounce quickly. Since the Trump administration signaled a tougher stance towards Iran, gold has repeatedly exhibited safe-haven rebound characteristics, briefly breaking the $5,000 mark last week. Although it failed to hold above $5,200, support below remains relatively solid.

Purely safe-haven-driven gains are often highly volatile. Once the conflict shows signs of easing, the gains could be quickly reversed within days to weeks, even if the geopolitical event itself lasts longer. Regarding the potential scale of the conflict, the report judges that the Trump team is likely to continue its "limited action" strategy, primarily targeting key Iranian figures while preserving the integrity of the existing regime structure and security system, similar to the approach taken in Venezuela, rather than the comprehensive regime change model pursued by the Bush administration in Iraq and Afghanistan. The bank expects this Middle East crisis cycle to last approximately one month.

Conclusion:

Overall, although gold prices have retreated in the short term due to profit-taking and a strong dollar, multiple safe-haven factors and structural demand continue to provide solid support at the bottom. Institutions generally believe that against the backdrop of continued global uncertainty, gold's long-term value as the ultimate safe-haven asset and anchor of trust remains prominent, and the possibility of a future rebound or even new highs should not be underestimated.

Middle East Powder Keg Ignites! Oil Market Shift Imminent?

On February 28, 2026, a day destined to be etched in history, the geopolitical storm in the Middle East escalated abruptly. The United States and Israel launched a coordinated military strike against Iran, which swiftly retaliated, launching missile attacks on multiple US military bases in the Gulf region, triggering severe turmoil in the global oil market. As a major supplier of approximately 3% of the world's crude oil and controlling one-fifth of the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's export infrastructure and strategic shipping position have become the focus.

This series of events was like a bombshell dropped on the global oil market, instantly igniting investor panic about supply disruptions. Since the beginning of the year, Brent crude oil prices have risen by approximately 20%, hovering around $73 per barrel. WTI crude oil rebounded and fluctuated above $67. However, a deeper impact may have only just begun: Iran, a crucial link in global oil supply, with its export infrastructure and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, means the aftershocks of this conflict directly impact the core of energy security. Analysts generally believe that while the attack may avoid directly targeting oil facilities, Iranian retaliation and potential shipping disruptions will push oil prices into a new cycle of volatility, potentially even surging to triple digits in the worst-case scenario. The core logic of this market movement is very clear: the market is no longer simply focusing on the current supply and demand balance sheet, but is frantically trading on the expectation of "potential supply disruptions" and the repricing of "risk premiums."

The Shadow Over the Strait of Hormuz

The market is generally focused on the safety of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this vital waterway. As long as there is a possibility of supply disruption, crude oil prices will react preemptively, like a frightened bird, rather than waiting for a substantial shortage to occur. Based on this deep-seated concern, the current geopolitical risk premium of $8 to $10 per barrel is considered to be fully reflected in oil prices. Under this premium, oil prices exhibit an "asymmetric" characteristic: they are sensitive to any signs of easing and readily give back gains, while any signs of tension amplify upward movements. This explains why recent rapid price increases have been accompanied by sharp pullbacks.

The Test of Demand Side

While demand was not the trigger for this surge, its resilience in a high oil price environment determines the ceiling for further upward movement. If the risk premium remains high, refining margins, refined product crack spreads, and downstream restocking pace will become the litmus test for market resilience. Once end-user demand becomes more sensitive to high prices, prices may shift from a rapid surge driven by geopolitics to high-level consolidation, using time to wait for signals of supply-demand rebalancing. In summary, the short-term trend in oil prices resembles a repricing process driven by risk events.

Middle East Powder Keg Ignites! Global Markets Enter Extreme Warning Mode

The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Saturday, targeting its leadership, thus ushering in a new phase of conflict in the Middle East. Market concerns about the spillover and escalation of the conflict led Iran to launch missiles towards Israel. Oil prices will become the primary "thermometer" for gauging tensions. If shipping and supply in the Strait of Hormuz are continuously disrupted, global market volatility could amplify significantly. Safe-haven assets such as gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries may benefit again, while airlines and risk assets will face selling pressure.

The market anticipates extreme volatility at the opening of financial markets on Monday: The last weekend of February 2026 saw global markets embroiled in tensions. With the deepening of the US-Israel joint strike and the release of significant rumors about high-ranking Iranian officials, Monday's opening focus has completely deviated from the usual path. However, influenced by the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a "decapitation" operation, market risk aversion is at its highest level in a decade.

Even without a full blockade, oil prices are highly likely to see a 10-25% premium. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the premium will approach 50%, a risk event sufficient to reshape market dynamics. Furthermore, energy stocks and gold are the most clearly rising sectors on Monday; currently, energy assets are still undervalued and have significant room for premium pricing.

Safe-haven assets like gold are expected to gap up at the open, while risk assets (such as high-beta currencies) will face sharp sell-offs.

In the currency market, despite investors lowering their bets on a Fed rate cut, the dollar remains unstable against most major currencies. The dollar index is generally under pressure, showing relative strength only in cross-currency pairs against the yen. The market's "anomaly" lies in the fact that even as interest rate expectations are revised in a favorable direction for the dollar, it is still struggling to strengthen.

Conclusion:

The true determinant of medium-term trends remains the supply-demand balance. Current rising inventories and increased production pose real pressures, meaning that even with recurring geopolitical risks, the upside potential for oil prices may be limited. Future oil price movements will depend on two variables: whether negotiations achieve substantial progress and whether OPEC+ continues to push for increased production.

In the short term, oil prices are more likely to fluctuate within the $70-$75 range rather than exhibiting a one-sided trend. The market is searching for a new equilibrium between risk and reality.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (March 2nd): Eurozone February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final; UK February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final; US January Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Revised) (%); US January Factory Orders (MoM) (%); US February ISM Manufacturing PMI; US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final

Tuesday (March 3rd): Japan January Unemployment Rate (%); Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the Week Ending March 1st; Eurozone February Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Preliminary (%); US President Trump Delivers State of the Union Address

Wednesday (March 4th): Australia February AIG Manufacturing Performance Index; Australia Q4 Seasonally Adjusted GDP (QoQ) (%); UK February SPGI Services PMI Final; Eurozone January Unemployment Rate (%); US February ADP Employment Change (thousands); US February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending February 27; The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) convenes in Beijing

Thursday (March 5): Australia's January Exports/Imports MoM (%); Eurozone's January Retail Sales MoM/YoY (%); US January Trade Balance (in billions of US dollars); US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 28 (in thousands); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

Friday (March 6): Eurozone's final Q4 seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate (%); US February Non-Farm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted, in thousands); US February Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%); US February Unemployment Rate (%); ECB President Lagarde addresses the 2026 Global Risks Seminar

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